9/29/2004

under the radar?

> The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows
> that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and
> minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen
> 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new
> registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A
> similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic
> areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in
> 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican
> areas

These impressive new voter registration drives have the potential to impact swing states Ohio and Florida, especially if the campaigns can get these new voters to the polls. As we know, this year there are some very compelling reasons to vote.

These first-time voters don't show up on ANY national opinion polling, since the professional pollsters need to validate samples based on prior election behavior. Most new voters are generally younger and more liberal. This could sneak up and bite the pollsters (& perhaps the incumbents) in the butt on election day... We can hope.

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