extreme geekology, election style

From Mystery Pollster:

> What is it that we are trying to measure? Is it what the endless
> sports metaphors in the media suggest, a “race,” a “marathon,”
> featuring a “sprint to the finish,” in which candidates may be
> “neck and neck,” or one might be “surging” or, say it ain’t so,
> building an “insurmountable lead?”
>
> No, it isn’t.
>
> What we are really following is an ongoing decision making process
> involving upwards of a hundred million voters. There are no
> “points on the board” yet; just millions of individual voters
> pondering a decision most will effectuate for another six weeks.

Ever since 1980, when the networks went to air with exit polling that ultimately dissuaded voters in the Pacific time zone from doing their civic duty*, I've been interested in the effect of polling on media coverage and election day voter turnout.

With most polls showing support for the candidates (outside of post-convention bounces and extraordinary news events) to be within the margin of error, the question must be asked: What the heck is "margin of error" and how can pre-election day polling be so heavily reported, but so unreliable a predictor of the outcome of elections?



*Epstein, Laurily K. Gerald Strom. 1981. “Election Night Projections and West Coast Turnout.”
American Politics Quarterly. 9:479-491

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